NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28ef86b08c3536bd5fa04b75446e71c104c3d3e3775be6416d03c3ed561bba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 51c | 5,010$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.88 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.33 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 49c | 2,105$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.3 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 1,837$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.57 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 892.37$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.32 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 882.95$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 50c | 640$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 599.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 49c | 590$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 53c | 396.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.23 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 47c | 396.23$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.23 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 48c | 359.11$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 75.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 57.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Over | 49c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…7b8bbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 50c | 29.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…6bd7backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 24.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. FlamesStars won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.