NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b39cc234494f4650905e08e4d2c6012040a13eaddac3486f1210dd7b2b7d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 62c | 5,598$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.3 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 4,086$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 38c | 1,382$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.58 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 6c | 692.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 37c | 546.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.96 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 38c | 461$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 38c | 458$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.96 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 262.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 7c | 221$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 63c | 158.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 97.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 63c | 80.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 38c | 75.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…7f24backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 41c | 52.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 65c | 36.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 41c | 25.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. FlamesStars won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.