Tennis · resolved market
ITF Villa Constitucion: Murkel Dellien vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a3a2e720f9253ac507714cb78d3a153b0b92a5bd51fdb10effd9ab017e66ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thiago Cigarranof Murkel Dellien, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Murkel Dellien | 47c | 7,383$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,468.33 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Thiago Cigarran | 58c | 4,673$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.78 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thiago Cigarran | 53c | 2,475$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.25 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…718bbacked Murkel Dellien | 3c | 1,814$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 384.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.44 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Murkel Dellien | 42c | 299.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Murkel Dellien | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Murkel Dellien | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Thiago Cigarran | 59c | 153.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Thiago Cigarran | 34c | 140.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Thiago Cigarran | 58c | 114.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Murkel Dellien | 24c | 113.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Murkel Dellien | 79c | 100.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Murkel Dellien | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 18c | 98.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Thiago Cigarran | 60c | 98.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Thiago Cigarran | 45c | 88.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Thiago Cigarran | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Thiago Cigarran | 59c | 72.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Murkel Dellien | 38c | 62.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Thiago Cigarran | 52c | 61.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…69a5backed Murkel Dellien | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 55.8%120 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Thiago Cigarran | 57c | 40.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Thiago Cigarran | 77c | 35.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 340 | 52.1%177 W · 163 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Murkel Dellien | 55c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Thiago Cigarran | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Murkel Dellien | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Murkel Dellien | 74c | 18.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Thiago Cigarran | 80c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.