NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a401ccadef3d857b177e72c159464a68515f85939c98474eb5246fad597131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Avalanche | 56c | 11,904$6,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,282.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Canucks | 45c | 8,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Canucks | 44c | 4,335$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.4 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Avalanche | 52c | 2,215$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…7cf1backed Canucks | 48c | 2,213$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canucks | 44c | 2,178$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Avalanche | 56c | 1,394$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.21 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Canucks | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 55c | 943$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.75 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Avalanche | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Avalanche | 73c | 332.84$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 45c | 270.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Avalanche | 53c | 265.59$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Canucks | 43c | 263.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Canucks | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Avalanche | 53c | 249.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Avalanche | 55c | 245$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Avalanche | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Avalanche | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Avalanche | 54c | 171.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canucks | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Canucks | 46c | 108.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Canucks | 45c | 97.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Avalanche | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Avalanche | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Canucks | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Avalanche | 55c | 50.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Canucks | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Avalanche | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Avalanche | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…1598backed Avalanche | 56c | 34.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Canucks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Avalanche | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Avalanche | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…a524backed Avalanche | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e74…1823backed Avalanche | 56c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Canucks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.