College Football · resolved market
NC State vs. North Carolina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2d6cb6bb6e7e1c0b321344744e44c7f48158a3fd7f6512f796f2b273583bb1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NC Stateof NC State, North Carolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x371a…34b0backed North Carolina | 1c | 1,444$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed NC State | 50c | 1,193$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.7 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed North Carolina | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed North Carolina | 56c | 235.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked NC State | 44c | 229.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed North Carolina | 59c | 166.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked North Carolina | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked NC State | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed North Carolina | 56c | 94.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked North Carolina | 45c | 92.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed NC State | 46c | 89.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked NC State | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed North Carolina | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed NC State | 46c | 51.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c75dbacked North Carolina | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…52f3backed North Carolina | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked NC State | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…8ae3backed North Carolina | 56c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.