MLB · resolved market
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBI's?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f9adc913f70ff982881bfa67519c9037c071d26c17c0ea68f523360abf21ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d4…9930backed No | 67c | 31,124$20,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,270.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…eb00backed Yes | 33c | 31,124$10,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,270.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 4c | 641$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 301$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked No | 46c | 221.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 19c | 172$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 79c | 108$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 47c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…07c6backed Yes | 23c | 57.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…df01backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBI's?this page
- Will Bryce Harper lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Matt Chapman lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Mookie Betts lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
- Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBI's?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.