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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c752.53$32 inLost-$31.891,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes6c360.42$23 inLost-$23.251,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c259.74$36 inLost-$36.18,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes15c249.15$37 inLost-$36.871,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes12c225.84$27 inLost-$27.4453548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes8c209.82$17 inLost-$1743153.1%229 W · 202 L+25.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes7c204.79$14 inLost-$14.4411115.3%17 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes13c185.22$24 inLost-$23.5921833%72 W · 146 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes13c178.82$24 inLost-$23.8533646.4%156 W · 180 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes15c176.33$27 inLost-$27.0719046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes6c171.05$10 inLost-$10.3210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes11c157.92$18 inLost-$17.733,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c154.11$19 inLost-$18.987,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x756d…4b84backed Yes11c134.95$15 inLost-$14.843548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes11c107.14$12 inLost-$11.792,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…ef14backed Yes19c98.8$19 inLost-$196431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes14c97.34$14 inLost-$14.0646736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes14c87.45$13 inLost-$12.627913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes19c83.18$16 inLost-$166738.8%26 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes14c80$11 inLost-$10.837027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes17c76.83$13 inLost-$138746%40 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c17.99$14 inWon+$3.785,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.