Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e08e1dcfa91b5876410f98c2f314f8b1f1ef0fc96f80f951c94bec7047e30d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 25c | 1,289$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.57 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 897.94$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.39 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 786.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 658.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 71c | 658.73$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 602.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.69 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 4c | 467.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 438.44$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed Yes | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 77c | 397.55$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 379.88$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 59c | 363.44$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 277.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 268.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 263.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked No | 61c | 251.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 31c | 241.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 226.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 223.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 79c | 216.58$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 21c | 204.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 203$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 202.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 56c | 198.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 179.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 80c | 150.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 147.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 75c | 139.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 76c | 137.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 136.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 132.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 119.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 32c | 118.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 75c | 118$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 116.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 21c | 115.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 27c | 111.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 108.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 68c | 104.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 103.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 99.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 72c | 97.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 92.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 92.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 92.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 91.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 87.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 86.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 84.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 80.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 78.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 51c | 73.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 72.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 70.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 67.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 66.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 64.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 64.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 64.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 63.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 59.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 53.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…0018backed Yes | 27c | 51.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 28c | 49.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 28c | 49.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 48.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 24c | 46.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 45.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 22c | 45.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 24c | 44.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 38.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 75c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 34.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.