Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04976304ee563ed07eaaa2ea9498ec6a2f376a21aa541495b6534c08dbdd8cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 622.39$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.78 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 49c | 454.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 368.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 351.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 344.43$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 57c | 300.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 68c | 243.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 60c | 219.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 47c | 212.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 208$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 202.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 68c | 202.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 201.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 200.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 187.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 51c | 173.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 146.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 137.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 129.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 125.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 52c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 122.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 34c | 117.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 61c | 111.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 52c | 104.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 98.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 97.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 54c | 92.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 89.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 88.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 88.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 77.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 29c | 77.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 76.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 32c | 74.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 72.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5a9cbacked Yes | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 37c | 70.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 67.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 60c | 66.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 66.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 63.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 63.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 56.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 56.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…0e0dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 54.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 51.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 47.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 46c | 44.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 41.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 73c | 39.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 74c | 38.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 61c | 37.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 35.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 50c | 34.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 78 | 89.7%70 W · 8 L | +28.3wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 81+0.28 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 34.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 50c | 32.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 79c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 30.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 28.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked Yes | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 62c | 25.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 53c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 69c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 74c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1764backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.