Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2ff124e140c4b7d1839c717da43b7390b3e4b721dfd52d57a951f632d845985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 66c | 5,218$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.49 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,271$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.16 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 709.04$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.79 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3d…6039backed Over | 43c | 581.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 29c | 485.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 32c | 456.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 438.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 3c | 432.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 41c | 423.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…92f3backed Under | 75c | 333.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 27c | 327.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 283$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 30c | 274$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 223.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 24c | 164.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 69c | 138.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 21c | 132$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 131.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 75c | 81.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Over | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 71c | 58.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 63c | 56.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…da72backed Under | 64c | 50.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Under | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…5bf2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: FK Liepāja O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Dečić Tuzi (-1.5)FK Liepāja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.