Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288d5643785e1bea689f126d148f0dd8ce149476121b0ac1b7da19415793d1ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 30c | 1,003$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.72 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 421.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 28c | 394.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 382$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 76c | 334.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 215.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 178.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under | 53c | 153.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Under | 56c | 107.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Under | 51c | 93.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 85.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 68.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6b58backed Over | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 54c | 67.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Under | 56c | 64.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 64.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed Over | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 53.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 44c | 48.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Over | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…a0f3backed Over | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…fe90backed Over | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 49c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 50c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Over | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: FK Liepāja O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Dečić Tuzi vs. FK Liepāja: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Dečić Tuzi (-1.5)FK Liepāja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.