Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa331433ce4ab2b6afa869f7e7f96a0112e144eb3907e3f92c1ff5f68fdaa74a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $412,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked No | 0c | 95,495$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf9…423dbacked No | 0c | 75,611$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b676backed No | 0c | 36,053$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…1214backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 46c | 21,405$9,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,757.57 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 54c | 20,000$10,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,240 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed No | 0c | 17,382$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f008backed No | 0c | 15,810$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b01…c6f6backed No | 0c | 6,162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked Yes | 63c | 3,550$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.28 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 2,854$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 50c | 2,008$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.77 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 49c | 318.78$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 49c | 198.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…e060backed No | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…78ddbacked No | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 49c | 71.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 55c | 45.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…656cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 69c | 34.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf653…adfebacked No | 45c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…35e2backed No | 52c | 30.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.