Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21380e684f4c151e47853c17ed5faed5dca9d87ed285e01fe9da93dacb44e566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd844…d6e7backed Yes | 0c | 27,611$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 31c | 20,000$6,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,135.27 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 30c | 12,908$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.23 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,096$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 34c | 10,840$3,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.07 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked No | 77c | 8,714$6,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.17 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…eba2backed Yes | 6c | 7,742$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 58c | 6,430$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.47 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,239$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 37c | 3,961$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 3,204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 74c | 3,000$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 16c | 1,906$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,669$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…2ce1backed Yes | 61c | 1,600$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 699.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb8…3236backed Yes | 3c | 680.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 669.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 31c | 523.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 485.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 4c | 411.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…403abacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 399.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…10fbbacked Yes | 48c | 300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…71afbacked No | 69c | 299.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 242.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 29c | 202.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 72c | 190.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…e060backed Yes | 36c | 185$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…35fcbacked Yes | 20c | 97.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…78ddbacked Yes | 23c | 52.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 75c | 50.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…70e1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…2576backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe095…b336backed No | 75c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…69eabacked No | 66c | 32.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.