Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8258efb9b9b6e32755e9161db99026dfc95f62352bca8ba1dd5ec2aa1c700a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 20c | 23,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 20c | 21,505$4,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,197.92 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 74c | 20,000$14,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,186.27 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…33bfbacked Yes | 1c | 14,113$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 19c | 9,460$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.92 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 14c | 8,411$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.64 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,015$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 4,895$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…a176backed No | 75c | 4,645$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 8c | 3,420$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.32 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…3cecbacked Yes | 29c | 3,409$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…7251backed Yes | 5c | 2,868$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,835$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 13c | 2,643$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…c036backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,990$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,605$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 7c | 1,146$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…71afbacked Yes | 18c | 1,100$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 926.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 894.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 12c | 838.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 808.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…19f3backed Yes | 6c | 730.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 653.43$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.16 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d90…f272backed Yes | 8c | 635$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…24ffbacked Yes | 3c | 632.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed Yes | 10c | 614.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 72c | 600$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 8c | 454.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb8…3236backed Yes | 4c | 452.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…c97ebacked No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 25c | 406.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 27c | 387.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…2ca5backed Yes | 3c | 362.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 5c | 356.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…5c61backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 15c | 247.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…ebb5backed Yes | 7c | 238.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 233.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…f2c9backed Yes | 11c | 149.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b56fbacked Yes | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 17c | 136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 79c | 122.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…b961backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…f7b8backed Yes | 41c | 75.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…2576backed No | 56c | 53.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…0fc2backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fa…52c5backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…89cebacked Yes | 32c | 36.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…7f1fbacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…df50backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…7414backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.