AI · resolved market
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33990568c22d863d2b2c9cc39587972578757e8b021300c4bbdaf46df7da36e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 29c | 1,265$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.21 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 700$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…04a2backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 53c | 247.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 15c | 192$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 185$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 33c | 124.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 60c | 87.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 58c | 81.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 59c | 64.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0379…2aabbacked No | 64c | 28.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 56c | 28.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4620…fd87backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B?this page
- Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $7.5B?Yes won
- Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.