Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. SMU Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33bd0b44c812bd34d620498a3c00d2a95e9203ee8a095f4ae70e147aedf2f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Notre Dame Fighting Irish, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 17c | 2,149$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 1,223$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 13c | 1,178$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 11c | 1,141$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 962.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 710.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 4c | 449.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 71c | 403.95$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3c | 357.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 247.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 212.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 9c | 204.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 7c | 187.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 160.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…3471backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 13c | 153.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 129$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 24%48 W · 152 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 18c | 114.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd3…47b6backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 13c | 100.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…e567backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…f4cabacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…ef4fbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5ebdbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 15c | 78.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 208 | 34.6%72 W · 136 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14c | 71.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed SMU Mustangs | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed SMU Mustangs | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked SMU Mustangs | 74c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. SMU Mustangsthis page
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-10.5)Notre Dame Fighting Irish won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-11.5)Notre Dame Fighting Irish won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.