Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34efdfd514de3a5e30de9a0add7869925a2aa0df27d3a8d0f2c8e122a8db4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 772.64$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 703.03$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 660.79$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 649.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 19c | 304.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 296.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 234$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 186.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 142.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 129.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 81.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 74.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 48.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 47.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 29c | 46.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 43.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…6570backed Yes | 28c | 36.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 36.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…a0febacked No | 73c | 34.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 32.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 34c | 32.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…d5fbbacked No | 74c | 31.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…2761backed No | 74c | 29.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fc…9df5backed No | 74c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 70c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.