Mls · resolved market
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa354ccdec57860c36d576b59f4e6fe2e0348e79109b073b94e557f80b5ec0445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vancouver Whitecaps FCof Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Diego FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 30c | 4,887$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Diego FC | 67c | 2,044$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.78 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed San Diego FC | 70c | 1,150$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed San Diego FC | 71c | 1,066$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.09 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego FC | 70c | 985.56$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.89 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked San Diego FC | 71c | 845.07$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked San Diego FC | 70c | 395$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed San Diego FC | 71c | 186.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 38c | 182.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed San Diego FC | 73c | 152$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed San Diego FC | 71c | 132.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego FC | 27c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego FC | 72c | 103.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Diego FC | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed San Diego FC | 70c | 81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 28c | 73.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 74c | 65.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego FC | 64c | 60.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked San Diego FC | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 31c | 51.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 30c | 37.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…e07fbacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 28c | 36.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +199%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed San Diego FC | 71c | 33.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego FC | 72c | 32.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked San Diego FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed San Diego FC | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego FC | 70c | 22.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed San Diego FC | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)this page
- San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.