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South American Leagues · resolved market

Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12f9…74babacked No61c2,459$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.241978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed No78c1,887$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.213574.3%26 W · 9 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x11cd…e5a8backed Yes36c973.78$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No69c701.89$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.093,80738.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L-29.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes38c656.78$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.512,59839.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L-26.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No66c621.79$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.011,50245.9%690 W · 812 L-18.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked No77c539.83$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.693756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes40c456.27$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes18c407.55$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a8…9c69backed No71c399.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1167861.5%48 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No62c366.26$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.461,32342.8%566 W · 757 L-2.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes11c318.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6282834.5%286 W · 542 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes31c300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.887047.1%33 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5715128.5%43 W · 108 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No69c264.74$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3336339.9%145 W · 218 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes34c239.03$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2727133.9%92 W · 179 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No79c227.32$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8125044%110 W · 140 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c218.85$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.151656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No80c171.76$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0715646.8%73 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked No60c167.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9511657.8%67 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Yes40c155.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.086647%31 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e7a…7e19backed Yes36c151.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed No62c150.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6254245.4%246 W · 296 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes17c147.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252560%15 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc1…1efbbacked Yes35c139.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No65c132.7$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.121640.3%87 W · 129 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes32c128.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.641,27156%712 W · 559 L+71.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e46…a831backed Yes34c111.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Yes49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.851747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes35c107.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.42544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4552…eac6backed No67c104.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.485671.4%40 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3418631.2%58 W · 128 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca5…2f7cbacked Yes29c99.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes21c88.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8530858.4%180 W · 128 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed No78c85.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-51%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No73c76.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6741145.5%187 W · 224 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes39c72.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3720553.7%110 W · 95 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f40…7afbbacked Yes42c71.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No77c66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.28551.8%44 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked No59c62.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5719749.7%98 W · 99 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5936745.8%168 W · 199 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177143.7%31 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x905f…ad6bbacked No61c48.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.912171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes36c45.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4267948.2%327 W · 352 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed No68c45.46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.628451.2%43 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No70c45.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.743,44651.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L+21.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe39…10adbacked Yes51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes38c42.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.114731.9%15 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce6e…b9e3backed Yes30c36.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Yes42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510826.9%29 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5e…e107backed Yes41c31.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed No56c31.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.855646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes37c28.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5930048%144 W · 156 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No63c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361,46556.8%832 W · 633 L+55.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…5715backed Yes40c26.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Yes48c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.565044%22 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No70c21.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471,32450.1%663 W · 661 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No70c19.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9370055.7%390 W · 310 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No68c18.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0517043.5%74 W · 96 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.