Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Chloe Paquet vs Kristina Mladenovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3da06386e8d72410b84251a96ad171dac173e529ad797408a3958ad9fc71e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paquetof Paquet, Mladenovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mladenovic | 0c | 11,054$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mladenovic | 40c | 3,032$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.69 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Paquet | 60c | 2,746$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mladenovic | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Paquet | 48c | 277$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Mladenovic | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Paquet | 62c | 167$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Paquet | 64c | 165.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Paquet | 65c | 151.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Paquet | 59c | 134$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…54ccbacked Mladenovic | 17c | 120.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Paquet | 77c | 115.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…bc23backed Mladenovic | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3,162.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Mladenovic | 50c | 104.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mladenovic | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Mladenovic | 24c | 85.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mladenovic | 47c | 77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mladenovic | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Paquet | 78c | 68.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Paquet | 63c | 62.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Paquet | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 900 | 64.3%579 W · 321 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Mladenovic | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Paquet | 50c | 47.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed Mladenovic | 28c | 38.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Mladenovic | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Mladenovic | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Mladenovic | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Paquet | 74c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Mladenovic | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Paquet | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mladenovic | 36c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Paquet | 72c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Paquet | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.