NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e2af1512972e3969fea28472d592bb3d64ae5f02831bd29985822a4406f781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 60c | 2,784$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.43 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.02 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Canucks | 59c | 2,289$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.52 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,472$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.19 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,248$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.65 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canucks | 6c | 759.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Canucks | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Canucks | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs | 38c | 287$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 253.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canucks | 45c | 251.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Canucks | 10c | 130.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 64c | 110.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 100.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Canucks | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canucks | 62c | 81.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 67.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Canucks | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 48.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Canucks | 62c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Canucks | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Canucks | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 38c | 28.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Canucks | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Canucks | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Canucks | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Canucks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canucks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.