Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42cc61bb511129415f3f8d6d0c882e09434b897bbc7d0d5dd84c7871c860452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69a2…f86fbacked No | 0c | 10,940$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…93f2backed No | 0c | 10,599$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed67…93f7backed No | 0c | 5,406$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173f…9c2cbacked No | 0c | 4,403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…82fabacked No | 0c | 3,311$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…377dbacked No | 0c | 3,115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…075fbacked No | 0c | 3,086$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…79c9backed No | 0c | 3,005$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…4e35backed No | 0c | 2,748$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…d651backed No | 1c | 2,690$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 4c | 2,686$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.01 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…88dbbacked No | 1c | 2,271$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…cb85backed No | 1c | 2,270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579b…8f8cbacked No | 0c | 2,209$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…c243backed No | 1c | 2,163$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 77c | 2,159$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 8c | 2,002$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.65 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4882…288dbacked No | 1c | 1,989$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…ef71backed No | 1c | 1,761$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…6a6fbacked No | 1c | 1,757$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…62c2backed No | 1c | 1,741$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…efb0backed No | 1c | 1,698$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…23d4backed No | 1c | 1,620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…daa0backed No | 1c | 1,612$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…d5b3backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…2fadbacked No | 1c | 1,338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf250…e8dfbacked No | 1c | 1,223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a3backed No | 1c | 1,207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 1,102$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.37 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 592.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 561.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.59 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 371.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 12c | 241.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.96 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 53c | 231.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 63c | 214.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…3887backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16b…c8d0backed No | 47c | 28.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…36f8backed No | 44c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…b98abacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…114fbacked No | 56c | 24.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298a…cb85backed No | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3e…4811backed No | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…72b7backed No | 68c | 19.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…689abacked No | 63c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.