Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa471a3bcb94f5912fea93559fd54e8ca7e4be8f6211e05204b64e52b10689d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,289$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,131$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 550.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 478.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 342.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 15c | 339.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 303.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 277.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…22abbacked Yes | 26c | 249.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 213.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 80c | 206$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 187.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 173.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 142.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…ff80backed Yes | 23c | 140.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 131.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 124.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 117.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 106.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 19c | 95.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 21c | 93.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 18c | 93.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 87.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 29c | 78.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 19c | 66.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 24c | 53.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 48.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 31c | 37.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 71c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 80c | 24.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 77c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 77c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.