Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ae1361694d392d19de941c0dfa9cbe6855c6ebcff68bad0e97a4cef1608fb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 2c | 1,149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 834.69$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 65c | 351.65$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 328.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 306.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 290.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 277.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 260.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 226.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 69c | 222.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 17c | 190.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 64c | 186.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 153.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 148.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 66c | 146.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 144.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 71c | 144.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…0cfdbacked Yes | 70c | 138.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 137.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 123.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 112.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 57c | 105.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 97.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 38c | 95.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 92.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 76c | 92.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 39c | 91.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 89.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 37c | 87.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…ff80backed Yes | 39c | 86.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 13c | 76.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 28c | 75.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 73.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 33c | 70.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 70.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 40c | 69.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 66.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 65.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 36c | 64.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 23c | 57.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 39c | 56.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 56.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 52.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 50.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 72c | 48.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 65c | 47.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed No | 69c | 46.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…474fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 35c | 39.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 67c | 35.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 36c | 35.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 67c | 34.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 33.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 32.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed No | 74c | 31.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 62c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 29.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 70c | 27.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 27.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 44c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed Yes | 70c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 67c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 22.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 69c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…ced0backed No | 72c | 18.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 69c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 74c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked No | 66c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.