Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa474665233244c7da19a1ad4da34eb00405310d07d4a2d288bc813d9f400775b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,169 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 26c | 625.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 20c | 302.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 285.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 266.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 247.92$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 20c | 223.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 147.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 144.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 140.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 128.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 120.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 43c | 106.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 106$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 101.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 99.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 84.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 80c | 83.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 30c | 70.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 19c | 60.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 54.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 32c | 46.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 36.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 73c | 30.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 75c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed No | 79c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 22.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.