Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc700149c36645bde2cbba8c939a63f135f61a617e818f15f193ac2fe1c901d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,820 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 23c | 482.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 26c | 471.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 255.65$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 190.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 25c | 149.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 101.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 99.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 88.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 86.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 24c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 24c | 67.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 64.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 64.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 23c | 62.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 78c | 51.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 75c | 51.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…abf8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 48.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…d99ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.