Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572112e052321b1ca04b00538523718a7fecf9683e95cac0c3c933e8fb7ef90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 50c | 680.71$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.55 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 434$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 364.44$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 291.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 17c | 253.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 239.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 20c | 214.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 33c | 214.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 195.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 72c | 157.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 76c | 156.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 142$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 120.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 112.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 61c | 111.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 105.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 41c | 104.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 91.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 67c | 84.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 30c | 81.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 77.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 74.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 70c | 70.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 51c | 68.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…08a8backed Yes | 42c | 65.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 62.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 70c | 57.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 44c | 46.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 46.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 43.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…8047backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 51c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 77c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee8…77f8backed Yes | 30c | 36.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…d00bbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 30.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 35c | 28.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 68c | 26.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 67c | 25.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 65c | 16.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.