Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa487292d4c36028d78a0de0759cd6262a81747d20021801851e895aff7541d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,705 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34d3…e1bfbacked Under | 64c | 310$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…1111backed Over | 35c | 292$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40e…4194backed Over | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…3846backed Over | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…e0abbacked Under | 65c | 290$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…cbb7backed Over | 35c | 287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…1678backed Under | 65c | 283$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd076…d784backed Under | 65c | 283$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…9316backed Over | 35c | 282$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…c56cbacked Under | 64c | 275$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0342…3e9dbacked Over | 35c | 271$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…0bb1backed Under | 65c | 253$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…39d8backed Under | 67c | 246$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…a37fbacked Under | 65c | 244$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…7a04backed Under | 64c | 242$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…3b31backed Over | 36c | 233$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…fa87backed Under | 65c | 222$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…ef73backed Under | 64c | 220$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3943…963abacked Under | 64c | 217$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…51eebacked Over | 36c | 213$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…acb0backed Over | 36c | 208$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…6db8backed Under | 64c | 204$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d01…2a30backed Under | 64c | 197$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Over | 29c | 192.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 71c | 187.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…8d2dbacked Under | 67c | 185$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…54febacked Over | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…0b04backed Over | 35c | 177$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…56b4backed Over | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…4b2abacked Under | 65c | 158$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbd…4e5bbacked Over | 36c | 154$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…5ba9backed Over | 33c | 153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…542ebacked Over | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…2f57backed Over | 36c | 146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa240…bf81backed Under | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…a9fabacked Over | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd506…d33cbacked Over | 33c | 127$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…0f7abacked Over | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2a88backed Over | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…9362backed Under | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+1.5)NightBirds won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group CNightBirds won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.