Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47a61ddf3ed1fc5369b9c75bc33b3abf211ada9308b506220506eb7df8cf83a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, Colossal Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,606 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Colossal Gaming | 34c | 1,861$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.05 | 484 | 40.5%196 W · 288 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked NightBirds | 66c | 1,520$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.8 | 610 | 45.2%276 W · 334 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed NightBirds | 65c | 480.36$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 219 | 54.3%119 W · 100 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…b62dbacked NightBirds | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 685 | 57.5%394 W · 291 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Colossal Gaming | 35c | 430.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Colossal Gaming | 35c | 397.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed NightBirds | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xede8…59dcbacked NightBirds | 65c | 321$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Colossal Gaming | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…e6f3backed NightBirds | 70c | 278$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…a9fabacked Colossal Gaming | 30c | 271$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…300cbacked Colossal Gaming | 30c | 264$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…c663backed NightBirds | 68c | 263$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…ecc0backed NightBirds | 70c | 251$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…ff19backed NightBirds | 68c | 241$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…3587backed Colossal Gaming | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…7d87backed NightBirds | 68c | 237$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…b7a4backed NightBirds | 70c | 234$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…f039backed NightBirds | 70c | 225$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaae…db9fbacked NightBirds | 68c | 223$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…794abacked Colossal Gaming | 30c | 218$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf335…2888backed Colossal Gaming | 36c | 214$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe436…0423backed NightBirds | 68c | 211$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…41d6backed NightBirds | 70c | 207$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…8fd5backed Colossal Gaming | 36c | 206$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…ca2abacked NightBirds | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…27d3backed Colossal Gaming | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…6db8backed Colossal Gaming | 30c | 198$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5826…3b73backed NightBirds | 70c | 194$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NightBirds | 69c | 193.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…ff9dbacked NightBirds | 64c | 190$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Colossal Gaming | 31c | 188.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…b547backed Colossal Gaming | 30c | 174$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…7a04backed Colossal Gaming | 30c | 171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…a37fbacked Colossal Gaming | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…0901backed Colossal Gaming | 36c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…5069backed NightBirds | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…343fbacked NightBirds | 68c | 154$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…f9a9backed Colossal Gaming | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…594fbacked Colossal Gaming | 32c | 144$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…39d8backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 143$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…e7a2backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 139$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…007abacked Colossal Gaming | 32c | 137$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…3379backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 136$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…1d75backed NightBirds | 70c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…58dcbacked NightBirds | 64c | 113$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…67b3backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…1477backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Colossal Gaming | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…7bc6backed Colossal Gaming | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…54febacked Colossal Gaming | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked NightBirds | 65c | 66.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…bd0cbacked NightBirds | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd5…8f67backed Colossal Gaming | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed NightBirds | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Colossal Gaming | 34c | 34.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed NightBirds | 72c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 173 | 66.5%115 W · 58 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed NightBirds | 71c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 430 | 40.9%176 W · 254 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group CNightBirds won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: Colossal Gaming vs NightBirds - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.