Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4a6e90cc12217a1712a8564f3851013baae95567cdc7516b990bcfd9a254cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 7c | 48,148$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.33 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 14c | 9,321$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.56 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 12c | 8,359$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.83 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,109$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.27 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,245$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.85 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 1,167$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 799.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 15c | 499$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 11c | 400.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 15c | 164.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 16c | 162.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 12c | 111.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.