College Football · resolved market
Will Texas A&M win by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b0197d6c0baf2985658f7a4748300e69334d83ba248e29f15f9749ab65340e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked No | 49c | 8,500$4,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,353 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Yes | 51c | 6,972$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 52c | 686.72$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.73 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 47c | 656.19$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.59 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ed…7b02backed No | 48c | 468.75$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 48c | 289.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Yes | 52c | 251$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked No | 49c | 195.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Texas A&M win by 3 or more points?this page
- Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M winner?Notre Dame won
- Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.