Tennis · resolved market
Tigre: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Lautaro Midon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c717d61a7b03134b8693705d2dadba5c5541b2667f4f710b53814021791a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Midonof Serna, Midon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Serna | 55c | 5,758$3,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,168.64 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Midon | 49c | 4,852$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…4795backed Serna | 29c | 3,085$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…82fcbacked Midon | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.3 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Midon | 46c | 1,514$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.56 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Midon | 54c | 1,484$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.53 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Midon | 46c | 1,321$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.43 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Midon | 39c | 1,238$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.07 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5c…d123backed Serna | 48c | 958.73$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.23 | 89 | 74.2%66 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Serna | 13c | 914.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Serna | 55c | 754$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.95 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Serna | 43c | 534.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.54 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Serna | 54c | 529$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Midon | 50c | 456.32$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Midon | 59c | 406.73$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…6b67backed Serna | 39c | 371$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Serna | 37c | 281$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Serna | 50c | 274.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Serna | 36c | 262.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Midon | 76c | 256.22$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Serna | 30c | 207$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Serna | 20c | 195.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Midon | 70c | 192.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Serna | 29c | 177.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Midon | 72c | 139.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Serna | 18c | 127.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serna | 61c | 94.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Midon | 50c | 89.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Midon | 77c | 83.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Serna | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Serna | 53c | 77.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…a60fbacked Midon | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Serna | 33c | 70.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Midon | 72c | 65.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Serna | 19c | 58.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Midon | 79c | 53.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Serna | 25c | 52.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Midon | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Midon | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Midon | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Midon | 38c | 37.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Serna | 44c | 34.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Midon | 40c | 33.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Midon | 68c | 30.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Serna | 51c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Midon | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Midon | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tigre: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Lautaro Midonthis page
- Serna vs. Midon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.