Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c978bf1fffcc4fdd9496dbf5cafb2966f4a3adfcb87f0b26240ecb21cbbb75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Aurora, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora | 54c | 6,476$3,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527.05 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Yandex | 46c | 4,350$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.74 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.97 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Yandex | 50c | 3,921$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.52 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Aurora | 50c | 2,899$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 55c | 2,067$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.85 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Yandex | 42c | 826.88$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.49 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Aurora | 52c | 577.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 63c | 420$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Aurora | 71c | 321.27$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 50c | 266$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 41c | 263.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092b…45afbacked Aurora | 56c | 246.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…1e4cbacked Aurora | 74c | 240$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Yandex | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Yandex | 46c | 156.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Aurora | 51c | 139.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Team Yandex | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 55c | 91.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Yandex | 40c | 89.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Aurora | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…99d6backed Team Yandex | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…a423backed Aurora | 58c | 43.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Aurora | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 53c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.