Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Idaho Vandals (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e1423139d0f2faab7ebbb892e081d248bde218cb6be8094bc0f81885147524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bakersfield Roadrunnersof Idaho Vandals, Bakersfield Roadrunners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho Vandals | 57c | 1,133$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 42c | 286.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 48c | 172$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 48c | 156$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Idaho Vandals | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Idaho Vandals | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Idaho Vandals | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Idaho Vandals | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Idaho Vandals | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Idaho Vandals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Idaho Vandals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Idaho Vandals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Idaho Vandals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-4.5)this page
- Idaho Vandals vs. Bakersfield RoadrunnersBakersfield Roadrunners won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners: O/U 150.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners: O/U 151.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5)Bakersfield Roadrunners won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-5.5)Bakersfield Roadrunners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.