Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Beacons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4efcdd81f82f29195df807424987ef61b61a092c9a79880e62d67700707dda9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valparaiso Beaconsof Illinois State Redbirds, Valparaiso Beacons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 1,795$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Valparaiso Beacons | 53c | 1,772$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.55 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 14c | 1,369$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Illinois State Redbirds | 5c | 1,202$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 5c | 1,150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 9c | 991.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 57c | 944.95$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.58 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Illinois State Redbirds | 25c | 659.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 50c | 627.65$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Illinois State Redbirds | 6c | 593.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Illinois State Redbirds | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 147 | 8.8%13 W · 134 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois State Redbirds | 6c | 428.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…7d2dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 328.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Illinois State Redbirds | 71c | 316.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.06 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Valparaiso Beacons | 58c | 259.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 43c | 221.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 36c | 207.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Illinois State Redbirds | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 8.7%9 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed Illinois State Redbirds | 54c | 187.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 70c | 143.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 142.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 140.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Valparaiso Beacons | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Valparaiso Beacons | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 73c | 121$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 26c | 51.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 74c | 51.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois State Redbirds | 35c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Illinois State Redbirds | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Beaconsthis page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 137.5Over won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 138.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.