Fifa International · resolved market
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fd9c7a75faada7b887ef6b72cc06fbd33d57cc3bbe265af8f1befa0350699f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 1,716$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 8c | 1,320$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 9c | 995.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…3a65backed Over | 7c | 984$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…c3c0backed Over | 9c | 832$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470a…7f12backed Over | 7c | 678$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…2634backed Over | 8c | 512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…232bbacked Over | 7c | 470$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…f30ebacked Over | 7c | 433$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…d0a9backed Over | 7c | 404$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…c05bbacked Over | 7c | 395$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…d6f1backed Over | 9c | 393$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…636ebacked Over | 8c | 379$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7f…2aa6backed Over | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…cd5cbacked Over | 9c | 353$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…5829backed Over | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609a…dbb6backed Over | 7c | 296$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 4.5this page
- Poland vs. Albania: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 1.5Over won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 2.5Over won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.