Fifa International · resolved market
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0200e04c4d30da580bb997a8437e4f25675b7c93c8aba4ca6da0fe11a0a816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 48c | 164,897$79,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,150.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 52c | 100,000$52,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 38,214$20,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,428.52 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 52c | 17,476$9,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,388.31 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 5,788$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.33 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 1,982$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…be30backed Under | 69c | 1,447$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Over | 48c | 1,035$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 52c | 868.21$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.74 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Under | 55c | 854.72$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…b581backed Over | 26c | 756.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7912…2c47backed Under | 74c | 756.13$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 648.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 33c | 609.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.97 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 602.89$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 558.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…fa93backed Under | 56c | 539.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…ebbfbacked Over | 19c | 516$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce6…929dbacked Over | 19c | 477$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…0330backed Under | 74c | 463.23$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…da13backed Over | 26c | 463.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 22c | 460.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Under | 80c | 449.06$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…6767backed Over | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…1b06backed Under | 55c | 364.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…2cffbacked Over | 19c | 354$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 80c | 333$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 80c | 306.25$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 33c | 305.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 19c | 294.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 283.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 249.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 24c | 203.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe992…8271backed Over | 19c | 185.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 55c | 183.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 79c | 182.79$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 52c | 144.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…c5ddbacked Over | 18c | 110.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Over | 49c | 102.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 54c | 92.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…d9eabacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 52c | 87.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked Over | 50c | 77.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…6327backed Under | 68c | 64.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 31c | 63.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 17c | 62.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 52c | 55.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 307 | 48.2%148 W · 159 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ccfbbacked Over | 20c | 55.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 43.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…bf73backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…ef3abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 80c | 27.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 56c | 18.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 79c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5this page
- Poland vs. Albania: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 1.5Over won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 2.5Over won
- Poland vs. Albania: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.