NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Seahawks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50376835907c3e8a4a5c71920b3603933cf9e4e52607c751dae5142cf670c40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Chargers, Seahawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Seahawks | 62c | 3,035$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.21 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Chargers | 39c | 2,907$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.15 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Chargers | 38c | 2,757$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Chargers | 40c | 2,556$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.44 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Seahawks | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed Seahawks | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Chargers | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Chargers | 39c | 333$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Chargers | 38c | 222$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Seahawks | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Seahawks | 60c | 101.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…ea0dbacked Chargers | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Seahawks | 55c | 77.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…80d5backed Seahawks | 62c | 60.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Chargers | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…97e7backed Chargers | 40c | 56.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Chargers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Chargers | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Seahawks | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa4…247ebacked Seahawks | 62c | 29.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.