Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa508b3994bff168cf259c9670db9e4c992fa623f85567f1fff9fece11ff7c22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 2,243$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,115$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 18c | 993.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 727.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 2c | 517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 7c | 471.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 460.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 7c | 393.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 4c | 325.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 286.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 14c | 247.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 41c | 243.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 223$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 222.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 14c | 222.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 186.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 8c | 180.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 10c | 142.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 8c | 142.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 10c | 97.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e7…7b7bbacked Yes | 12c | 95.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 13c | 88.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 12c | 83.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 65.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 27.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.