Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293962cd7c06d2270b822228d5b0d31eb0ca46ea093767d5037740511a80de0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 1,878$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.66 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 70c | 1,535$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 48c | 1,199$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.82 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 1,120$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 1,085$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 2c | 754.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 46c | 618.53$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 561.22$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 22c | 558.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 48c | 519.64$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 490.6$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 463.62$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 457.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.14 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 454.15$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 51c | 382$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 29c | 344.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.82 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 315$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.33 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 64c | 266.61$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 258.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 201.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 25c | 197.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 29c | 187.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 43c | 182.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 164.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 48c | 162.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 141.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 54c | 141$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 140.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 132$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 39c | 126.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 118.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 10c | 117.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 115$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 54c | 109.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 54c | 101.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 95.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 88.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 63c | 84.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 82.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 49c | 82.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 54c | 75.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 34c | 72.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 69.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 68.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 49c | 67.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e7…7b7bbacked Yes | 38c | 66.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 53c | 66.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 70c | 61.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 59c | 61.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 63c | 60.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 59.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 52c | 57.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 55.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 52.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8779…3eaabacked Yes | 47c | 46.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 51c | 45.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 44.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 44c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 41.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 50c | 40.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 51c | 39.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 35.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 40c | 34.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 59c | 34.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 50c | 33.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 44c | 33.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.