Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x188194ad064492ad2bf3ffdd424ecb1d4b8fe6725912b6842df00821da5256c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 897.63$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.71 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 712.76$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 459.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 272$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 267$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 41c | 246.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 239.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 71c | 235.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 220.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 181.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 177.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 156.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 153$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 24c | 146.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 57c | 130.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 128$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 11c | 121.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 111.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 102.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 100.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 97.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 93.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 89.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 89.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 85.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 81.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 65.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 63.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 62.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 59.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 56.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…2124backed Yes | 48c | 52.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…e3c8backed Yes | 30c | 48.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 32c | 47.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 45.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 44c | 45.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…d2ffbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 43.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 23c | 43.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 41.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 39.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 38.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 37.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 30c | 36.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 41c | 35.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 35.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 34.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 31.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 79c | 31.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 31.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 26.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 44c | 26.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 55c | 25.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 59c | 24.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…2d72backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 54c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 66c | 18.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 14.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.