NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa520ef012734aefc810848f5ab1f8ac3f78d524ef73a7718e03b9c84f1b18476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Wild, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,600 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Blackhawks | 60c | 1,163$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.04 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Wild | 40c | 352$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Wild | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Wild | 40c | 176$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wild | 61c | 148.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Wild | 56c | 141.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Blackhawks | 41c | 115.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Blackhawks | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Wild | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Wild | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Wild | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…2a1ebacked Wild | 40c | 71.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Wild | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Blackhawks | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Wild | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wild | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 60c | 37.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Wild | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Blackhawks | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Blackhawks | 61c | 28.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Blackhawks | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Wild | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Wild | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Wild | 67c | 23.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wild | 48c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blackhawks | 60c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Blackhawks | 61c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. BlackhawksWild won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.