NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x851d7365ff5d2f1ea4c5b20861069fa935484ad334e58730d6e38c95676d332b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 55c | 26,372$14,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,867.56 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 55c | 25,448$13,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,451.67 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 45c | 22,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,899.98 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 14,178$6,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,380.26 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 45c | 10,342$4,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,653.9 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 7,542$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.14 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…c442backed Over | 55c | 4,680$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 55c | 3,815$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.92 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 55c | 1,824$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.29 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 1,254$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.3 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 885.5$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.48 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 46c | 543$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…1f65backed Under | 43c | 230.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 220.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 168$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Over | 54c | 152.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 136.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 54c | 127.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Over | 55c | 123.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 118.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 91.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 46c | 82.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Over | 55c | 74.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 50c | 71.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 47c | 69.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 47c | 64.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…20e9backed Under | 45c | 51.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 41.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 35.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 46c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 55c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 228 | 53.9%123 W · 105 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Blackhawks won
- Wild vs. BlackhawksWild won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.