F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa525144dc4e8e18b298110830360b3c9b2930630d85e6a76218c31a1d5bf25e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f74…7a20backed Yes | 69c | 72.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 19c | 71.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 31c | 71.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Yes | 77c | 68.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 52c | 50.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…7133backed No | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 34.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…3283backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes | 57c | 24.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Yes | 64c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Racing Bulls get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.