Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa532be560e819496ec91493e6cf53a581b9d5774e031c937f92cdfa033187175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 0c | 5,403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 68c | 1,104$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.27 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 19c | 487.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 272.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 237.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 182.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 80c | 170$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 136.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 65c | 127.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 80c | 125.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 117.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 11c | 97.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 52c | 90.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 21c | 90.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 86.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 85.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…525ebacked No | 70c | 84.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 49c | 84.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 70c | 82.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 70.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 76c | 65.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 58.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 48c | 58.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 31c | 57.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed Yes | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 40.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 73c | 28.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 36c | 28.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 44c | 25.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 23.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 60c | 18.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.