Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4895b4c98672d20be05acd9587b8ffcfdcc09460b6f5e55437f5b9064c04ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62d8…6783backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…6ecabacked Yes | 20c | 8,743$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 2c | 950$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.3 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 341.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 11c | 299$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.96 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 255.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 52c | 211.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 36c | 146.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 77c | 130.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 127.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 109.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 45c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 102.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 96.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 95.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 90.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 16c | 88.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 74.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 73.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…4edbbacked No | 56c | 64.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 60.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 58.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 46c | 57.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 54.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 62c | 48.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 58c | 46.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 45.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 80c | 34.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 54c | 31.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…999cbacked Yes | 78c | 30.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5d06backed No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 25.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 49c | 22.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 80c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.