Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa53d4ef40e6ad33bb062c17bff84b82776f99c965edc8d8a9042a4405ddf1584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 737.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 67c | 418.53$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 5c | 261.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 61c | 146$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 11c | 145.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 138.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 136.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 130.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 27c | 112.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 95.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 92.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 85.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 43c | 80.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 76.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 58c | 70.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 17c | 61.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 61.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 60.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 59.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 55.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 54.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 49.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 69c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed Yes | 27c | 47.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 24c | 45.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 41.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 40.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 38.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…e1ebbacked No | 76c | 33.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed No | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 66c | 26.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 24.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 23.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 22.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 21.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 74c | 15.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 15.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.