TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,680 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians32c723.99$229 inLost-$229.3212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers73c452.95$330 inWon+$122.6411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers62c320.61$197 inWon+$123.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Cleveland Guardians28c170.75$48 inLost-$47.769346.2%43 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers73c169$123 inWon+$45.636,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers79c70.27$56 inWon+$14.762,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Cleveland Guardians32c67.76$22 inLost-$22.011,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Cleveland Guardians25c40$10 inLost-$1077836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers75c40$30 inWon+$102,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians38c30.5$12 inLost-$11.552,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers72c23.16$17 inWon+$6.462,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Detroit Tigers72c22.55$16 inWon+$6.3226063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers66c15.5$10 inWon+$5.271,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.