MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85370a9efba21a10d23d3d27c2a63ae26e95ba0a5d0679523fbc9de2406ce03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 5,496$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.06 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 2,638$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 1,830$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,390$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.39 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 1,153$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.21 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 734.02$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 721.82$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.07 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 720$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 440.43$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 342.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 327.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 300$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 289.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 279.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 279$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 253.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 250.41$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 248.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 40c | 240.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 232.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 198.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 197.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 164.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 155.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 144.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 114.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 112.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 91.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 59.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 266 | 18.4%49 W · 217 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 58.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 54.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…b8cfbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 48.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 47c | 36.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 36.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 36.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 34.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 50c | 30.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 18.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…7353backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…59c1backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…f529backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…f3fabacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…b346backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.