MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b95d28a50346d1645dbda95a6d634a5a11e662d7e693e32dff9bfb1c6e6a57d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 51c | 49,204$25,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,093.99 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 32,840$16,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,745.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 8,613$4,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,392.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 8,029$4,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 5,222$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.22 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Under | 50c | 3,640$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Over | 50c | 3,421$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 50c | 3,048$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.69 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 1,808$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 50c | 1,555$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.68 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.22 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 974$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 50c | 896.08$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 421.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 364.65$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 50c | 322.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.23 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…ee7ebacked Over | 42c | 198.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…8609backed Under | 51c | 168.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…905dbacked Over | 51c | 166.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 36c | 63.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 51c | 51.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Over | 51c | 33.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 32.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 28.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 28.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 27.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 61c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.